More going on than meets the eye

Some friends and I were talking about the current Katrina-disruption gas crisis.

I just happen to keep track of my mileage, so I have some solid data .

I always keep track of my mileage. But this summer, prices were rising so fast that for the first time, I started making note of prices even when I wasn't buying. The interesting thing to notice here is that the summer of '05 was already a gas crisis BEFORE Katrina.

(My apologies if this is too tedious for anyone, but I figure that as I already HAVE this data, I might as well share it.)

2005
Jan. 18 191.9 paid
Jan. 22 185.9 paid
Jan.29 191.9 paid
Feb.19 193.9 paid
Feb.20 175.9 paid (New Jersey Hess)
Mar.12 207.9 paid
(...skipping a bit -- a stable quarter, too tedious even for me --
but then we enter an inflationary period)
June 5 212.9 paid
June 7 212.9 paid
June12 216.9 paid
June19 216.9 paid
June21 220.9 paid
July 10 231.9 paid
July 10 233.9 paid (up 21¢ / 10% in a month)
(7/10 is at the SAME STATION: they increased price 2¢ midday, as alluded to in the July 11th post below)
July 16 233.9 paid
July 30 233.9 paid
Aug. 6 235.9 paid
In early August, gas starts going up fast enough that I start keeping note of it - -
Here are the observed prices at my corner Mobil station:
Aug. 8 243.9
Aug 10 249.9
Aug.11 253.9
Aug.12 249.9 paid
Aug.13 263.9
Aug.14 265.9 - up 22¢ / 8% in 6 days
Aug.22 261.9 paid
Aug.29 267.9 paid (up 34¢ / 15% in a month, PRE-crisis)

Monday morning, August 29th, Katrina hits the Gulf Coast: the following are mostly (unless noted) the observed prices at my corner Mobil station
Aug.30 267.9 observed
Aug.31 269.9 obs.
(Prices now sometimes change MIDDAY, I don't have all of those observations)
Aug. 31 279.9 paid (I had the Lady M fill the minivan...)
Sept. 1 289.9
Sept. 2 319.9 (+30¢ /10%, the biggest daily jump I've ever seen)
Sept. 3 339.9 (up 70¢ / 26% in 3 days)
Sept. 4 329.9
Sept. 5 329.9
Sept. 6 329.9
Sept. 7 329.9
Sept. 7 339.9 (changed MIDDAY)
(Sept. 7: 329.9 paid (Getty, 7gal. Highest I’ve ever paid.)
Sept. 8 339.9
Sept. 9 339.9
Sept.10 339.9
(Sept.10: 324.9 paid (Citgo, 11 gal) )
Sept.11 339.9
Sept.12 334.9
Sept.13 309.9 (- 25¢, biggest 1-day drop I've ever seen)
Sept.14 309.9
Sept.15 299.9 (up 30-32¢ - say 12%- over pre-crisis)

So: a two-week crisis (so far...), with a 26% spike, five days at the peak price, and now maybe settling at something >40% higher than at the start of the summer, perhaps 12% higher than two weeks ago.

But note that July was up 10% over June,
August was up 15% over July.
So another 12% "Katrina" rise in September
is just a continuation of that trend.